Current News
Oleh Nanovest Research & Strategy Team
Makroekonomi AS Awal Oktober 2023
Pada paruh pertama 2023, kondisi pasar saham AS begitu positif. Fenomena ini menghilangkan kekhawatiran resesi yang timbul pada akhir 2022 di mana banyak yang beranggapan jika tingginya suku bunga The Fed akan membawa AS masuk ke dalam krisis keuangan setidaknya selama 12 bulan ke depan. Demam teknologi AI menuntun pergerakan indeks, khususnya sektor teknologi, untuk tetap bullish. Namun pada paruh kedua 2023 ini, sepertinya indeks membutuhkan dorongan lain untuk tetap bullish. Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average, kecuali pada akhir Agustus bergerak datar, cenderung negatif seakan menutupi kinerja awal tahun.
Pada awal Oktober ini, inflasi masih sulit untuk melewati level 3%, di lain pihak harga minyak mulai menunjukkan tren kenaikan pasca pemangkasan produksi OPEC+. Yield obligasi pemerintah AS yang mencapai titik tertinggi sejak 2007 juga membawa tekanan bagi pergerakan indeks. Apakah berarti The Fed akan tetap menaikkan suku bunga secara agresif kembali? Sehingga kekhawatiran resesi muncul lagi di penghujung tahun ini?
Seperti yang kita ketahui inflasi AS mulai menunjukkan kecenderungan naik kembali. Walaupun demikian inflasi inti (core inflation) bisa disimpulkan lebih terkendali. Laporan data pekerjaan AS juga masih cukup kuat artinya belum terjadi PHK massal, bahkan cenderung masih mampu menyerap tenaga kerja. Di satu sisi hal ini berarti ekonomi AS masih cukup kuat menanggung beban suku bunga. Namun data pekerjaan yang positif tentu kontraproduktif dengan semangat menurunkan inflasi. Semakin banyak orang yang memiliki pekerjaan berarti semakin besar daya beli, dan semakin besar pula permintaan dari sisi konsumen untuk berbagai barang dan jasa.
Namun laporan pekerjaan yang dirilis pekan lalu membawa angin segar bagi pasar. Maklum The Fed telah sesumbar tidak akan agresif lagi dengan kenaikan suku bunga.
The Fed mulai lebih mempertimbangkan efek suku bunga yang tinggi bagi ekonomi secara umum. Indeks-indeks acuan bereaksi positif dengan rilis laporan pekerjaan pada penutupan pasar Jumat pekan lalu. Tentunya pelaku pasar merujuk pada pernyataan The Fed yang tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga secara agresif tahun ini. The Fed yakin dengan kebijakan saat ini, inflasi cepat atau lambat akan segera menuju ke level 2%. Jika demikian maka tren penurunan indeks utama yang kita lihat saat ini bisa saja menjadi awal untuk bull market setidaknya sampai akhir tahun ini.
Rangkuman Saham yang diupgrade Selama 2 – 6 Oktober 2023
| Company | Ticker | Rating Sebelumnya | Rating Saat Ini | Pemeringkat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AllianceBernstein | AB | neutral | buy | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
| América Móvil | AMX | neutral | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| América Móvil | AMX | neutral | buy | UBS Group AG |
| Apellis Pharmaceuticals | APLS | neutral | overweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Beacon Roofing Supply | BECN | sector perform | outperform | Royal Bank of Canada |
| Booz Allen Hamilton | BAH | neutral | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| Ceridian HCM | CDAY | hold | buy | Needham & Company LLC |
| Clean Energy Fuels | CLNE | outperform | strong-buy | Raymond James |
| Clearway Energy | CWEN | neutral | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| Clorox | CLX | neutral | buy | DA Davidson |
| Columbia Banking System | COLB | sell | neutral | UBS Group AG |
| Datadog | DDOG | neutral | overweight | Piper Sandler |
| DOW | DOW | underweight | sector weight | KeyCorp |
| Eaton | ETN | neutral | overweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Evergy | EVRG | underperform | neutral | Bank of America Co. |
| FedEx | FDX | neutral | positive | Susquehanna |
| Fiverr International | FVRR | neutral | buy | Roth Mkm |
| Fluor | FLR | neutral | buy | UBS Group AG |
| Liberty Media Corporation - Formula One Group | FWONA | neutral | buy | Citigroup Inc. |
| Frontdoor | FTDR | hold | buy | Truist Financial Co. |
| Generac | GNRC | negative | mixed | OTR Global |
| Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. | TV | neutral | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| HP | HPQ | underperform | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| Hub Group | HUBG | peer perform | outperform | Wolfe Research |
| Insulet | PODD | hold | buy | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. |
| Invitation Homes | INVH | in-line | outperform | Evercore ISI |
| Kellogg | K | underperform | neutral | BNP Paribas |
| Kemper | KMPR | neutral | overweight | Piper Sandler |
| KeyCorp | KEY | underperform | peer perform | Wolfe Research |
| LGI Homes | LGIH | sell | neutral | BTIG Research |
| Life Time Group | LTH | underweight | equal weight | Wells Fargo & Company |
| Live Oak Bancshares | LOB | neutral | overweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| LyondellBasell Industries | LYB | underweight | sector weight | KeyCorp |
| Macerich | MAC | underweight | neutral | Piper Sandler |
| Matson | MATX | peer perform | outperform | Wolfe Research |
| Monster Beverage | MNST | hold | buy | Cfra |
| Mr. Cooper Group | COOP | market perform | outperform | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods |
| Nokia Oyj | NOK | hold | buy | DNB Markets |
| O'Reilly Automotive | ORLY | neutral | buy | Citigroup Inc. |
| Olaplex | OLPX | underweight | equal weight | Barclays PLC |
| Orange | ORAN | underperform | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| Parker-Hannifin | PH | neutral | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| PennyMac Financial Services | PFSI | market perform | outperform | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods |
| Pinnacle West Capital | PNW | underweight | sector weight | KeyCorp |
| Prosperity Bancshares | PB | outperform | strong-buy | Raymond James |
| Rivian Automotive | RIVN | in-line | outperform | Evercore ISI |
| Shoals Technologies Group | SHLS | neutral | overweight | Piper Sandler |
| Suzano | SUZ | neutral | overweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| TE Connectivity | TEL | market perform | outperform | TD Cowen |
| Trane Technologies | TT | underperform | neutral | Bank of America Co. |
| Trane Technologies | TT | underweight | neutral | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| UBS Group | UBS | neutral | outperform | BNP Paribas |
| United States Steel | X | equal weight | overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| UWM | UWMC | neutral | buy | BTIG Research |
| Warby Parker | WRBY | in-line | outperform | Evercore ISI |
| Warner Music Group | WMG | neutral | buy | UBS Group AG |
| WESCO International | WCC | neutral | overweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Westlake | WLK | underweight | sector weight | KeyCorp |
| Wingstop | WING | underperform | hold | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. |
| Xcel Energy | XEL | neutral | buy | Bank of America Co. |
| Zscaler | ZS | neutral | overweight | Piper Sandler |
Rangkuman Saham yang didowngrade Selama 2 – 6 Oktober 2023
| Company | Ticker | Rating Sebelumnya | Rating Saat Ini | Pemeringkat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adecoagro | AGRO | outperform | market perform | Itau BBA Securities |
| Autoliv | ALV | buy | hold | Danske |
| AutoZone | AZO | outperform | market perform | Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. |
| Bread Financial | BFH | buy | neutral | Bank of America Co. |
| Bread Financial | BFH | neutral | sell | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
| Cambium Networks | CMBM | outperform | market perform | JMP Securities |
| Cambium Networks | CMBM | outperform | market perform | Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. |
| Canadian National Railway | CNI | buy | neutral | Bank of America Co. |
| Carrier Global | CARR | neutral | underperform | Bank of America Co. |
| Carrier Global | CARR | neutral | underweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Chubb | CB | overweight | neutral | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Clorox | CLX | outperform | market perform | Raymond James |
| Comerica | CMA | strong-buy | outperform | Raymond James |
| The Cooper Companies | COO | buy | neutral | Redburn Atlantic |
| Emerson Electric | EMR | buy | neutral | UBS Group AG |
| Fidelity National Financial | FNF | outperform | market perform | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods |
| Floor & Decor | FND | buy | neutral | Citigroup Inc. |
| G1 Therapeutics | GTHX | neutral | underweight | JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Getty Images | GETY | buy | neutral | Redburn Atlantic |
| Ingevity | NGVT | buy | hold | Loop Capital |
| LCI Industries | LCII | neutral | underperform | DA Davidson |
| LiveVox | LVOX | outperform | market perform | Northland Securities |
| LiveVox | LVOX | buy | hold | Stifel Nicolaus |
| Marriott Vacations Worldwide | VAC | buy | hold | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. |
| NatWest Group | NWG | overweight | equal weight | Morgan Stanley |
| Newmark Group | NMRK | outperform | market perform | Raymond James |
| NextEra Energy Partners | NEP | overweight | equal weight | Wells Fargo & Company |
| Norfolk Southern | NSC | buy | neutral | Bank of America Co. |
| NU Holdings Ltd | NU | buy | neutral | New Street Research |
| O'Reilly Automotive | ORLY | outperform | market perform | Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. |
| ON Semiconductor | ON | outperform | neutral | BNP Paribas |
| POINT Biopharma Global | PNT | buy | neutral | Guggenheim |
| POINT Biopharma Global | PNT | outperform | market perform | SVB Leerink LLC |
| PPL | PPL | buy | neutral | UBS Group AG |
| Ryder System | R | outperform | peer perform | Wolfe Research |
| Sandy Spring Bancorp | SASR | buy | neutral | DA Davidson |
| Shoals Technologies Group | SHLS | outperform | market perform | Northland Securities |
| Sibanye Stillwater | SBSW | equal weight | underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| SolarEdge Technologies | SEDG | overweight | equal weight | Barclays PLC |
| SomaLogic | SLGC | buy | hold | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. |
| Sun Communities | SUI | buy | neutral | Bank of America Co. |
| Sunnova Energy International | NOVA | buy | hold | Truist Financial Co. |
| SunPower | SPWR | strong-buy | outperform | Raymond James |
| Sunrun | RUN | buy | hold | Truist Financial Co. |
| Toast | TOST | buy | neutral | Mizuho |
| TPI Composites | TPIC | outperform | market perform | Raymond James |
| Tractor Supply | TSCO | buy | neutral | Citigroup Inc. |
| Trinseo | TSE | buy | hold | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. |
| Venus Concept | VERO | buy | neutral | BTIG Research |
Weekly Top Movers (2 – 6 Oktober 2023)
Gainers
- Point Biopharma Global (PNT) +85,91%
- Alx Oncology Holdings (ALXO) +73,36%
- Gritstone Oncology Inc (GRTS) +66,27%
Losers
- Bridgetown (BTWN) -36,20%
- Repare Therapeutics Inc (RPTX) -35,84%
- VinFast Auto Ltd (VFS) -35,68%
Technical Analysis – U.S. Stocks
By. Frederick Marvel – [email protected]
Stockpick
1. XOM – BUY LIMIT
Secara structure, Exxon berada pada sideways pattern selama beberapa bulan. Bulan lalu, Exxon sempat naik tinggi akibat kenaikan harga WTI. Saat ini, setelah penurunan WTI, kita dapat melihat bahwa XOM Kembali turun ke lower sideways pattern-nya. Kita dapat melakukan Buy Limit di area tersebut.
Price: 1552000
Take Profit: 1780000
Stop Loss: 1454000
2. BP – BUY SCALPING
Terdapat peluang Buy Scalping untuk BP selagi ada positive sentiment dari WTI. Kita dapat menanti BP untuk sampai ke level upper trendline dan juga supply kuatnya. Tetap berhati – hati karena BP termasuk saham yang sensitif ke pergerakan harga minyak dunia. Tetap disiplin dan juga hitung resikomu.
Price: 581000
Take Profit: 623000
Stop Loss: 559000
3. MPC – BUY SCALPING
Terdapat peluang Buy Scalping di MPC. Sama seperti BP, MPC juga terlihat ingin membuat kenaikan sementara. Kita bisa secure profit jika sudah floating profit 3-5%. Tetap berhati – hati dalam berdagang saham yang sensitif terhadap pergerakan harga komoditas.
Price: 2235000
Take Profit: 2440000
Stop Loss: 2128000
0 comments